Unalaska, AK – As the Arctic Ocean warms up and as ice continues to melt, Unalaska may become an even more lively international port. Scientists are predicting that ship traffic will greatly increase across the Arctic in the coming decades, meaning more development in Alaska and nations like Russia and Canada.

But while climate change has the potential to stimulate the northern economy, it may also degrade the arctic environment significantly. A team of American and Canadian scientists have recently published a paper looking at the feedback loop between climate change and increased shipping. University of Delaware marine scientist James Corbett explains this cycle.

"When the ice recedes, shipping activity, including activity to move commodities in and extract resources like oil or bulk materials out -- that activity peaks when the ice reveals access for navigation," says Corbett.

More ships in the arctic means more exhaust gas and thus more air pollution. That results in a greenhouse gas effect that could raise temperatures.

Corbett says that they created models for two separate scenarios. One imagines a race to the Arctic, and the other considers development that happens at a slower pace. If vessel implement technologies like sulfur-dioxide-absorbent seawater scrubbers, they can reduce their emission of black carbon to a level that would remain almost constant through the next 40 years.
The paper is called "Arctic Shipping Emissions Inventories and Future Scenarios," and it is being published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.