Unalaska, AK – The National Marine Mammal Laboratory has released the results of its most recent Northern fur seal pup count in the Pribilofs, and the survey shows that pup production continues to decline in the region.

Approximately 94,000 pups were born in St. Paul this year, and nearly 18,000 were born in St. George. Pup production has declined 7.6% since 2008, when the survey was last completed.

Rod Towell is a mathematical statistician, and he's been working on this biannual survey since 1992. He says that the changes to the seal rookeries have been apparent since he started, and that the researchers working on this project weren't surprised by the lower population numbers this year.

"I don't know that there were any major surprises," says Towell. "I think most of us who have been working on this for a while were hoping for an increase on St. Paul, but we don't go in with any preconceived notions of what's going to be there."

In the 1970s, an estimated 300,000 pups were born in the Pribilofs each year. The cause for the decline in pup production is still unknown.

"We don't have a smoking gun," says Towell. "We have studies in place that are looking at a lot of different factors and effects. We're looking at disease, we're looking at foraging. We're trying to get to the survival and reproductive rates. Once we get more information on these parameters, we'll have a better idea of at least the next step and where to go to look for a culprit of why we keep seeing this decline in pup production."

The pup production survey will be undertaken again in 2012. The National Marine Mammal Laboratory has also taken on other long-term marking studies, particularly of adult females. The scientists behind these projects hope that these studies will shed light on the survival and reproductive rates of the Northern fur seals in the Pribilofs.