Unalaska, AK – Opilio crab TACs might be drastically lowered this year - from 58.6 million pounds last season to as low as 16 million pounds. This is the recommendation of the crab plan team, which advises the North Pacific Fishery Management Council and the Alaska Department of Fish & Game on setting the total allowable catches for the crab fisheries. Fisheries biologist and plan team member Forrest Bowers said that when they met last month they discussed the health of the opilio stocks. Snow crabs were declared overfished in 1999 and fisheries managers implemented a 10-year-long rebuilding plan. This is the eighth year.

"Based on all of the projections up until this point we had been on track to be rebuilt in 10 years however after the most recent survey and the most recent fishery, the stock status trajectory changed a little bit and that derailed us," he said.

The only way to get back on track is to seriously limit the fishing. The snow crab fishery will not be considered rebuilt until the stock levels are above the biomass maximum sustainable yield, a level that produces good long-term returns, for two years in a row. Looking at current survey data and model projections, the stocks are about 60 million pounds too low. But Bowers says the level changes each year depending on the summer stock surveys, which are finished in August. This summer's data will help them determine the TACs, which will be announced in October.

It is unclear what will happen if the fishery is not considered rebuilt by 2010. NOAA lawyers are trying to clarify what the Magnuson-Stevens Act says.

If the snow crab TAC is drastically cut, Bowers says the fleet will probably be much smaller and fish a much shorter season. It would also seriously impact the city's income from the fish landing tax. Last year, the total ex-vessel value for the fishery was about $80 million.