Unalaska, AK – The Groundfish Plan Team's initial review of this year's pollock survey data shows that the fish stock could be improving. Both the acoustic survey and the bottom trawl survey, which collect pollock population data throughout the Bering Sea, found more fish than scientists expected. Fisheries stock assessment scientist Jim Ianelli said that though the numbers were higher than expected, they haven't sky rocketed.

"On the bottom trawl survey the number is up from last year, but out of the 29 years we've been doing the survey, it's still only 23rd highest. It's not like it's going through the roof. It's just much better than last year's, and it's better than we expected from last year's analysis."

He explained that multiple factors could have helped the stock and potentially the total allowable catch. "The relatively low quota that we had this year in 2010 meant that while we were lowering the fishing mortality on those age classes and allowing those younger age classes to grow and put on body weight and therefore, in addition, they'll also have opportunities to spawn. So they're contributing more and more to the spawning population, which in terms of conservation is something we strive to achieve. And then they are also growing into the fishable population, which takes fewer fish to make a ton of pollock which also contributes to the allowable catch."

However, he stresses that this is preliminary data and does not mean that this year's TAC will be higher. The TAC won't be determined until December. This year's TAC might also be affected by comments made by independent reviewers of the fishery management strategies and assessment approaches. That could affect how the data is used and therefore the level of the TAC. Ianelli said it's also important to remember how uncertain the surveys are.

"It's not a census. They're samples. They're sampled with error. Environmental effects can change the availability of fish to certain gear types. They may be more concentrated in areas that we didn't sample as intensively and things like that, so there's lots of uncertainty in survey estimates," he said. The uncertainty is factored into the ultimate catch limit.

During this week's Groundfish Plan Team meeting they also reviewed the stock assessment for Pacific cod, which seems to be showing a significant improvement from previous years.