Sea ice analysis for August 26, 2013. (Courtesy of NOAA)

With Arctic sea ice almost done melting for the summer, it’s unlikely that this year’s low will break any records.

“The retreat has been much closer to normal than the last few years were,” says Kathleen Cole, a forecaster for the National Weather Service’s Ice Desk. “The last few years, the ice went north quite quickly. Last year, I remember the eastern Beaufort Sea opened up amazingly fast. I mean, we were all really -- not necessarily concerned -- but it was a kind of a shocking thing to see.”

Over the past few decades, satellites have observed a steady decline in Arctic ice cover. And last summer, sea ice extent hit a record low.

This year’s slower ice retreat might seem like good news for climatologists. But Cole says that’s not necessarily true. For one thing, the ice is still melting faster than normal, just not as fast as in previous years.

And she points out that it’s impossible to draw any conclusions based on data from just one year.

“It’s a very complex system, but it does go in cycles,” says Cole. “You can’t look at one season and say something about a global phenomenon or a long-term trend.”

The sea ice edge is currently located about 150 miles north of the Beaufort coast. The ice began its retreat last spring, and Cole says it’s expected to continue to melt through the end of September.